The Randomness of Trading

As traders observing the Forex currency market, we look for patterns to trade that will net us profits. The problem is that market is so random. Yes, there are patterns that occur over and over again, but the market is always changing or going through cycles. I have been rereading Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and found a good trading quote.

The book is not an easy read, and if you are looking for a lot of trading wisdom, you may be disappointed. I think there are a lot of good points he makes though. I was thinking about my trading when I read this quote: “At a given time in the market, the most successful traders are likely to be those that are best fit to the latest cycle.”

I think this is why traders come and go. When I first started trading, I signed up for unlimited training with a market “expert” who had years of experience. I appreciate what I learned from him, but he closed shop overnight without a warning, basically dropping off the radar. His methodologies / strategies still show up in the market, but don’t happen as often as in the past. The cycle for his trading strategy has come and gone basically.

Is it possible to make money at trading with all the variables and change? I think the best traders are the ones with years of experience who have committed their lives to doing it full time day after day, and who recognize the market cycles and make the needed adjustments because of their experience. I think if we are not committed to put the time, effort, and commitment (years), we are doomed to fail and cycle out with the market.